Proposal to Keep Talent from Jumping Ship

It’s becoming all too common for star players to want out of the team that drafted them and head to bigger markets and/or form super teams with other big names.

• Former 1st overall selection LeBron James left Cleveland for Miami in the cap space bonanza summer that was 2010.
• Chris Bosh, taken three spots after James, also left for Miami from Toronto to form a super team with Dwyane Wade completing the three-headed monster.
• Former #9 pick in 2002 Amare Stoudemire left Phoenix for New York for the pricey sum of $20 million annually.
• Third in the 2003 draft, Carmelo Anthony, called the shots on his way to New York from Denver.
• #3 selection Deron Williams requested out of Utah and was sent to New Jersey.
• Taken one spot after Williams in 2004, Chris Paul let it be known that New Orleans was not his long-term home and a total shitstorm has ensued in the efforts to move him.
• The next domino, first overall selection in 2004 Dwight Howard, has reportedly asked out with his preferred destinations being the reigning champion Dallas Mavericks, Kobe Bryant-led Los Angeles Lakers, and up and coming New Jersey Nets.

These players have all the leverage when they request a trade the year before their deal expires, forcing the hand of their teams to either keep them and lose them for nothing, or trade them to a short list of desired teams in order to get some return on the player.

My proposal would be an attempt to revamp free agency when the next CBA negotiations take place (likely in six years when either side is able to opt out).  Following in the footsteps of the NFL, there would be a built-in mechanism to reward teams that have restricted free agents accept offers from rivals, leaving the teams that drafted them empty-handed should they be unable or choose not to match.

There would be four tiers of qualifying offers that teams could make on their restricted free agent.

1. The team can offer their free agent 250% of their previous salary for one season.   If another team is to offer restricted free agent that goes unmatched, the bidding team will give two first- and two second-round picks, to be redeemed at the home team’s discretion in a three year window.
2. The 200% qualifying offer will result in the home team receiving one first- and one second-round pick from the bidding team, to be exercised within a three year window.
3. A 150% qualifying offer will yield a second-round pick for the home team within three years.

An example would be our very own G Rodney Stuckey, selected 15th overall in 2007.  If you follow the twitters, his (unverified) account has indicated that he’d like a fresh start and would head to Portland ASAP to fill the hole left by the retiring SG Brandon Roy.  Now, the Pistons would like the opportunity to hold onto any player on their roster with positive trade value (not Jason Maxiell, not Charlie Villanueva, not Ben Gordon…) and would not like to see another drafted player achieve greater success outside of Detroit (see Arron Afflalo, Carlos Delfino, Mehmet Okur).  Under my proposal, a tier 1 qualifying offer would guarantee Rodney Stuckey  $6.91 million, tier 2  $5.53, and tier 3 $4.13.
Rodney Stuckey is likely worth more than the approximate $7 million that a tier 1 offer would afford him, considering SG Marcus Thornton just received $8 million over four years from the Sacramento Kings and Stuckey is almost certainly a superior player.  The question is: is Rodney Stuckey worth $7 million+, two first rounders, and two second rounders?

If he is, then he will be happy to go to the team of his choice that wants him that badly.  If he isn’t, then his market value has been determined and he should be grateful that the Pistons want to keep him despite his interest in leaving.  If the Pistons decide to match, then Stuckey should be respect the vote of confidence that Detroit made in matching the contract offer that the bidding team provided.

I will have two other posts coming up shortly provided other mechanisms that will try to prevent the formation of superteams in big markets and/or reward teams that draft well and/or keep talent in small markets.

 

Lawrence Frank is not Bill Laimbeer. Happy Regardless!

While it hasn’t been officially announced, it is widely known that Lawrence Frank will be named the next head coach for the Detroit Pistons.

This is a win for a variety of reasons:

• Lawrence Frank understands that there are two sides to the court, one of them being defensive.  The Pistons rank as one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.  Detroit claims the worst differential regarding points in the paint, grab the fewest rebounds, and are generally poor at protecting the basket.
  The Pistons had enough players of the scoring variety, as Ben Gordon has a career high of 21.4ppg, Richard Hamilton 20.1, Rodney Stuckey 16.6, Charlie Villanueva at 16.2, and Tayshaun Prince at 14.7ppg.  Considering that Austin Daye is largely an offensive threat and that Greg Monroe and Jonas Jerebko can reach double-digits without having many plays ran for them, a coach that emphasizes defense is a must in the project of returning the Pistons to competence.
• He’s not a first-year coach!  Unlike the recently-fired John Kuester and former Piston Michael Curry, Lawrence Frank, Frank coached for parts of seven seasons in the NBA and spent a season learning from Doc Rivers.
  Kuester was an apprentice of the largely incompetent Mike Brown (now HC of the LAL) with Cleveland, and Curry learned from Flip Saunders the season that the entirety of the Pistons roster tuned Flip out.  Frank spent a season learning from a championship-bearing coach before jumping back into things.
• The Pistons are finally distancing themselves from the 2004 championship formula by hiring from outside of the franchise.  Mike Woodson, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks, was an assistant to Larry Brown the last time we won a ‘ship, and Detroit is better off by not overvaluing components of that title run.  A coach who won’t favor Richard Hamilton or Ben Wallace or Tayshaun Prince (if he returns) will go a long way in winning back control of the locker room.
  It’s enough that general manager Joe Dumars has tried to replicate the 2004 roster (Rodney Stuckey=Chauncey Billups w/o jumper; Richard Hamilton=himself, Ben Gordon=Mike James; Tayshaun Prince=himself; Austin Daye=Tayshaun Prince, offensive version; Charlie Villanueva=Rasheed Wallace; Ben Wallace=himself, etc…), and it’s about time for a coach that will look to embrace the differences in ability and talent between our current core and the old regime.
• The Pistons are a guard-heavy team, and Lawrence Frank has coached some of the best.  With Boston he had the pleasure of working with Rajon Rondo, third in assists average last season, and Ray Allen, one of the purest shooters in league history.  His stint in New Jersey saw him manage Jason Kidd, arguably a top five PG of all time, and Devin Harris, currently a mismanaged top 10 floor general.  If there was anybody available that could mold Rodney Stuckey into a genuine PG, it’s Lawrence Frank.
• Frank has time to assemble his staff and adequately evaluate his personnel during the lockout.  By hiring Frank in a timely fashion, Lawrence will have more preparation than the average off-season coach hire would.  He’ll need it, as somebody needs to figure out how to improve the team’s presence in the paint with marginal talent, as well as how to involve all of our backcourt threats (Stuckey, Hamilton, Gordon, Will Bynum, Brandon Knight) until a trade is completed.

Under different circumstances, such as the Pistons coming out of the draft with FC Bismack Biyombo, I would have advocated for the hiring of Rick Adelman, formerly of the Houston Rockets and renowned for his successes with the Sacramento Kings.  He would have known how to best take advantage of the passing and playmaking abilities of bigs Greg Monroe and Charlie Villanueva, as Chris Webber and Vlade Divac dazzled with their ball movement and high-low post game in Sacramento.  I am frustrated that there are no reports of the Pistons reaching out to Adelman when he’s been in contact with the clusterfuck Minnesota Timberwolves about their vacant position.

While Bill Laimbeer was passed over for the head coaching position, I am still holding out hope for him to return to the franchise he loves as a big man specialist and lead assistant.  Laimbeer made a career out of rebounding and hustling despite mediocre athletic ability and he’d be a great example for Villanueva and Monroe and Jonas Jerebko to follow.

The Detroit Pistons did the right thing by doing their homework on all the head coaching candidates (aside from Adelman, ugh) and taking their time before settling on the right man for the job.  It is unclear whether Joe Dumars or new owner Tom Gores is more responsible for the decision, but either way, it was a correct one.  I’ll be excited to see if Frank can become the Pistons longest-tenured coach since Flip Saunders (three seasons), hoping that we have finally found somebody that can match Chuck Daly’s nine years with the Pistons.

 

http://www.freep.com/article/20110712/SPORTS03/107120379/1048/sports According to Tayshaun Prince’s agent, Bill Duffy, the Pistons had reached out to him about their desire to have him return prior to the lockout. A couple questions arise: a) Why would the Pistons want him back? b) Would Tayshaun consider returning? c) How much could/would/should his new contract be worth?

The Pistons depth chart, assuming no free agents return, all drafted rookies get a roster spot, and seniority is largely determined by salary:
PG Rodney Stuckey (QO or extension)/Brandon Knight/Will Bynum
SG Ben Gordon or Richard Hamilton/Terrico White*
SF Austin Daye/Jonas Jerebko/Kyle Singler
PF Charlie Villanueva/Jason Maxiell
C Greg Monroe/Ben Wallace/Vernon Macklin

Flexibility helps us out, as Stuckey loses no effectiveness by sliding over to SG, nor do Jonas Jerebko or Greg Monroe at PF.  Daye has also had some success at SG. as has Richard Hamilton at SF.

If we have four players capable of playing SF, is there really any room for Tayshaun Prince if he were to return?

• The Pistons have invested in Austin Daye, giving him 20 minutes a game last season.  He was said to be a 3-4 year project when he was drafted in 2009, and when the lockout ends we’ll be entering season 3.
• Two seasons ago, during Jonas Jerebko’s roookie season, he was a starter for the Pistons at SF and was at times our best player and always the most consistent.  The only reason he doesn’t have the a stronghold over the starting position is his long recovery from an achilles injury.
• Kyle Singer was drafted early in the second round of the 2011 draft, and he is considered one of the most NBA ready players entering the league.  His toughness and intangibles at the position are intriguing, to say the least.
• As I’ve mentioned before, the best way to get both the values of Ben Gordon and Richard Hamilton up are to give them the minutes they deserve, and Hamilton’s may have to come at the SF position.

It is clear to me that the Pistons have already invested quite a bit into these four men, and that Joe’s reputation is at stake if any more of his draft picks don’t pan out or if he is unable to move or justify the contract given to Hamilton.

Tayshaun has had to endure three consecutive losing seasons and three different coaches in four seasons; I highly doubt he’d be willing to experience a fourth in five.  He is already 31 years old with more wear on his tires than the average player his age.  He has played in nearly a season and a half’s worth of postseason games and has had two summers of international competition on top of that.  At this point in his career, he’s either looking for one last payday, the best chance at a championship, or both.  The Pistons will have the ability to offer him the most money for the most seasons, but he could get comparable offers from other teams that would compete with the Pistons’ deal.  He has made, according to www.basketball-reference.com, some $52.2 million over his career, so another team willing to give him 15 or so million over three years should be enough to entice him to leave regardless of what Detroit offers.

I’m suspicious that this news was leaked by Prince’s agent to drum up preemptive interest in his client.  It really is in the best interests of both parties for Tayshaun to move on to a contender, which the Pistons do not project to be for quite some time.  Here are some teams that ought to display mutual interest:

• The Oklahoma City Thunder-backing up and sometimes playing alongside Kevin Durant, displacing Daequan Cook and Thabo Sefolosha.  Assuming the salary cap remains in the new CBA and isn’t lowered, they would have the cap space to sign Tayshaun to a fair deal outright.
• The Los Angeles Clippers-Tayshaun is from Compton, California, and they have a glaring hole at the SF position.  The opportunity to play alongside a franchise player in Blake Griffin, alongside strong play from the center position in DeAndre Jordan and Chris Kaman, could be too much for Prince to pass up.  If he helps build up the team before he retires, he and the fans would likely be satisfied in his decision to head to the West Coast.
• The Houston Rockets-Barely missing the playoffs last season, the Rockets have decent pieces in place with SG Kevin Martin and PF Luis Scola.  After making several moves lately, acquiring Prince could be enough to push them over the hump.  His competition at SF would be Courtney Lee and Chase Budinger, a fight he would easily win.

 

Which Free Agent C to Pursue?

Whenever the NBA owners and player’s association can agree on a new collective bargaining agreement the Detroit Pistons can resume addressing the roster.  No trades or free agent signings can occur until then.

Currently, our only glaring hole is not having a true center on the roster, assuming you aren’t satisfied with 6’7″ Jason Maxiell manning the position when Greg Monroe and Ben Wallace aren’t in the game.  While I expect rookie Vernon Macklin to make the team-but not the active roster-he was a power forward in college at Florida and players typically don’t assume “bigger” positions in the move to the pros.  Our only options at this point will be to try to move some of our “bad” contracts in SGs Richard Hamilton and Ben Gordon and PF Ben Gordon for a center, or attempt to find a diamond in the rough in the 2011 free agent class.

Here is a link to all the 2011 free agents that had their contracts expire after the 2010-2011 season, as well as some others that have been linked to the NBA: http://hoopshype.com/free_agency.htm

Assuming that Greg Monroe is going to play primarily at C and that Ben Wallace is ready and able to be his primary backup, we can take a flyer on a young big with potential.  Allow me to throw out some names:

• FC Hilton Armstrong, Atlanta Hawks Free Agent, UCONN.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kEtKjACpQEg
• FC Josh McRoberts, Indiana Pacers Free Agent, Duke.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRGy_LQQj5U
• FC Jason Smith, New Orleans Hornets, Colorado.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1HgqN3I8v1M
• C Aaron Gray, New Orleans Hornets, Pittsburgh.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkQU2Q2fRcw
• C Kyrylo Fesenko, Utah Jazz, Ukraine.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0rj4RYaHiu0

Of course I’d also like to throw (reasonable) bucks at Greg Oden and see how he and Portland respond, but I think Portland matches.  He is the only dominant defensive post player available.  Besides him, the best we can do are FCs that complement Monroe or plodding Cs that can back him up.

 

The Case for a Third Draft Round

The second round of the 2011 NBA draft was downright silly.  Several foreign prospects were selected, many of which will likely never come stateside, while many local prospects went undrafted.  Michigan State saw Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers go sixty picks without hearing their names called.  Greg Smith out of Fresno State, Scotty Hopson of Tennessee, Demetri McCamey of Illinois, Malcolm Thomas of San Diego State University, and many more have seen a wrench thrown in their NBA plans, while a player who wasn’t even eligible for the NBA draft was selected in Targuy Ngombo.

If I were drafting a new CBA, I would include a third round.  In doing so, I would alter the rights and privileges granted to those drafted in the second round.  In order to better cultivate local talent, second round draft picks would be guaranteed a contract with the NBDL affiliate team of the NBA club that drafted them.  In this setup, all the local fans in Ohio that are shocked about David Lighty being passed up sixty times could have instead seen him drafted where Milan Macvan was, as the third round would unofficially be a draft-and-stash round where major projects are selected.  The NBDL would benefit from having “big names” play for them, the draftees would benefit from having a contract and the chance of getting called up to the big leagues, and we as fans wouldn’t see our favorite college players immediately fade into obscurity by virtue of playing overseas.

Win-win-win?

 

Are Hamilton/Gordon/Villanueva Underproducing?

When listening to talk radio and reading opinion on the interwebs, Rip Hamilton is the consensus choice of player to be moved.  They point to his advancing age (33), his decreasing statistical output (last two seasons were his two lowest scoring totals besides his rookie year), and the logjam at shooting guard as pros (with Rodney Stuckey and Ben Gordon and Terrico White).

If he’s moved, it should be because he’s developed a reputation as a coach killer and wants out, not because the new coach can’t be creative and find ways to get the most talented players on the floor or find them ample shot opportunities.  Hamilton isn’t the only player that was improperly utilized under head coach John Kuester, and the other two names also find themselves on the trading block: Ben Gordon and power forward Charlie Villanueva.

Let’s take a look at how they’ve done statistically:

Richard Hamilton

Season	Age	Tm	Lg	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2009-10	31	DET	NBA	46	46	1552	6.8	16.6	.409	1.0	3.2	.297	4.7	5.6	.846	0.7	2.1	2.8	4.7	0.7	0.1	2.7	2.7	19.3
2010-11	32	DET	NBA	55	39	1498	6.9	16.1	.429	1.3	3.5	.382	3.5	4.1	.849	0.6	2.5	3.0	4.1	0.9	0.1	2.1	2.3	18.7
Career			NBA	843	710	27774	7.3	16.2	.450	0.6	1.9	.347	4.1	4.8	.852	1.0	2.5	3.5	3.8	0.9	0.2	2.4	2.8	19.3

As you can see, per 36 minutes, Hamilton’s statistical output the past two seasons was on par with his career averages.  Rip Hamilton’s problems last season were simply due to his playing fewer minutes per game and fewer games overall.  The fact that his on-court production per minute wasn’t affected by coaching “buffoonery” is to his credit.  Rip’s trademark playing style was virtually absent last season, as he wasn’t ran off of screens or enjoying the offense being ran through him off the ball.
I suggest moving him to SF, not sitting him when he’s healthy, playing him 30-36 minutes a game, and emphasizing the the plays that brought him and the team success in the past.

Ben Gordon

Season	Age	Tm	Lg	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2009-10	31	DET	NBA	46	46	1552	6.8	16.6	.409	1.0	3.2	.297	4.7	5.6	.846	0.7	2.1	2.8	4.7	0.7	0.1	2.7	2.7	19.3
2010-11	32	DET	NBA	55	39	1498	6.9	16.1	.429	1.3	3.5	.382	3.5	4.1	.849	0.6	2.5	3.0	4.1	0.9	0.1	2.1	2.3	18.7
Career			NBA	843	710	27774	7.3	16.2	.450	0.6	1.9	.347	4.1	4.8	.852	1.0	2.5	3.5	3.8	0.9	0.2	2.4	2.8	19.3

Again, Gordon’s stats are very similar to his career averages per36 minutes.  His overall field goal percentage is slightly down, but otherwise he’s the same player he was with Chicago.  John Kuester essentially turned BG7 (soon to be BG8) into a spot-up jumpshooter, when really he’s an assassin that demands the ball in his hands and the ability to create his own shot.  If you need a refresher, watch this video of him dominating the Celtics in a playoff game a few years back:

Watching Ben Gordon from 2009-2011 and contrasting it with how he played as a Chicago Bull would lead you to believe that they are two different people.  Gordon needs to start at SG, receive starting minutes, and always be the #1 or 2 option at all times when on the court with the green light to look for his own shot.

Charlie Villanueva

Season	Age	Tm	Lg	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2009-10	25	DET	NBA	78	16	1848	7.1	16.1	.439	1.9	5.5	.351	2.1	2.5	.815	1.7	5.5	7.1	1.0	0.9	1.1	1.4	4.3	18.1
2010-11	26	DET	NBA	76	11	1666	6.8	15.3	.442	2.7	7.0	.387	1.9	2.5	.767	1.1	5.3	6.4	1.0	0.9	0.9	1.4	3.8	18.2
Career			NBA	428	158	10783	7.1	15.9	.448	1.6	4.5	.346	2.4	3.0	.790	2.3	5.7	8.0	1.5	0.8	0.9	1.8	3.9	18.1

As we can see, Charlie has been pretty consistent relative to his career statistics except for less of an effort on the defensive class and many more three point attempts.  Lest he take a Rasheed Wallace career trajectory, we need him to fall out of love with the three ball and get his butt back in the post, where he is a match-up nightmare for most players.  He averaged 25 minutes per game for his career but only 23.7 and 21.9 in his first two season with the Pistons.  Villanueva needs to play at least 24 minutes a game to be worth his contract.

In summary: all three of these bloated contracts are actually producing similarly per minute as they always have.  If the new Pistons coach can find a way to get all three the minutes they deserve (24 for CV, about 32 for Hamilton, 30 for BG) and have them score the way they used to.  Hamilton needs to curl off of screens, Gordon needs to break down defenders using his dribble and hesitation moves, and Villanueva needs to stop being so one-dimensional.

 

Post Draft: Where Do We Stand?

I hope it”s not breaking news that the Pistons selected PG Brandon Knight from Kentucky at #8, SF Kyle Singler at #33, and big man Vernon Macklni at #52 in the NBA Draft last night.  At the Pistons draft party, Joe Dumars indicated that he expected all three to contribute and alluded to the positions that they will play.  At first glance, we filled all three of our biggest needs: a) PG more pure than Bynum and Stuckey with range, b) SF that brings toughness that Austin Daye may lack, and c) big man capable of playing center and banging in the post.  Unexpectedly, we acquired these players in an order that was reverse of the expected.

Anybody with an ounce of sense can see that the Pistons still have need for a rotation-worthy big man, and are offering up one of SGs Richard Hamilton or Ben Gordon.  The most obvious targets are any of the four preexisting big  men on the Utah Jazz: PFs Paul Millsap and Derrick Favors and FCs Al Jefferson and Mehmet Okur.

I argue that we hold off on that trade.

The trade values of Gordon and Hamilton were low before, if not negative, and now every team in the league knows that we need to unload at least one of our high-paid guards.  We need to play both of them heavy minutes and provide them with enough shots to get their values back up.  Similar to how Don Nelson’s Golden State Warriors and Phoenix’s Mark D’Antonio used to push the ball and “artificially” inflate their players’ stats, the Pistons should hire a coach that is willing to run and employ small lineups.  When you have many weaknesses and are not able to mask them, you may as well play up your strengths, that being our backcourt.

Here is the three-deep, nine-man  lineup I suggest:

PG Brandon Knight/Rodney Stuckey/Will Bynum
SG Rodney Stuckey/Ben Gordon/Richard Hamilton
SF Richard Hamilton/Austin Daye/Jonas Jerebko
PF Jonas Jerebko/Charlie Villanueva/Jason Maxiell
C Greg Monroe/Ben Wallace/Vernon Macklin*

That team may seem undersized (because it is) but it’s the best way to give minutes to the players that need and deserve them.  Ben Gordon needs to be allowed to create his own shots and shoot with a green light, and Hamilton needs to have plays ran for him off of curls, both as the #1 or 2 option at all times on the floor.  This is the best way to convince other teams that our 12.5 and 11.6 million dollar men are worth trading for without major incentives (draft picks, young prospects, taking back a bad contract).
This team would have to have to rely on Ben Wallace for reasonably heavy minutes until a younger center is acquired, and all three of Ben and Jerebko and Monroe are going to have to focus the majority of their efforts on rebounding and finding bunnies for themselves.

Tomorrow I’ll detail why Lawrence Frank is now the man for the job after our new additions…yet there’s still a place for Bill Laimbeer.  Stay tuned.

 

What Not To Expect Tonight

Tonight’s draft promises to be very unpredictable.  Teams are blowing up phone lines trying to switch spots so that they can land their man, and this is an ever-increasing trend in the NBA.  In fact, in the 1990s there were only 5.2 traded picks on draft day.  Today, that number has risen to a remarkable 13.4.

Unfortunately, the Pistons have only taken part in TWO draft day deal since Joe Dumars has taken over the General Manager position.  In 2008 the Pistons selected DJ White on behalf of the then Super Sonics at #29 in exchange for the 32nd and 46th picks.  As I detailed in an earlier rant, this was not a wise move as Detroit selected Walter Sharpe and Trent Plaisted, both who never amounted to a damn thing in the NBA.  In 2009 the Pistons selected GF Chase Budinger for the Houston Rockets in exchange for future 2nd rounders.

On draft night Joe and the Pistons usually just set their sights on a small set of players and select their BPA, according to their draft board, when the time comes.  They haven’t been shown to react to players who have inexplicably slipped in the draft, either by trading up or into the draft to select a targeted player or trading with another team so that they can land said slider.  The NBA Draft can be like a game, wherein you win by getting the most value out of your picks, and sometimes you can manipulate other teams into surrendering value.  Chase Budinger was one instance of this, yet the Houston Rockets had to contact Joe Dumars and indicate their interest.

Forgive the shitty picture quality, but it hasn’t appeared that Joe has been as aggressive as he was in the early 2000s (when the pic was snapped) or taken the initiative to find deals that will shrewdly benefit the Pistons.

NBA draft picks do have a cap hold against the salary cap, but do not require matching salaries to be traded away.  This makes it possible for teams to purchase draft picks for $$$, up to 3  million per.  The Pistons have never purchased a draft pick outright, or even with the addition of a present or future draft pick.  Other teams have been much more proactive, and in 2009 cash was involved in the acquisition of no less than four draft picks, and the exchange of future picks was featured in three trades.  In 2008 there was more of the same, as five more deals involving the movement of cash and/or future draft picks were seen.  Many players were had or could have  been taken at these draft slots, and many would have been of great aid to Detroit, such as Mario Chalmers, Goran Dragic, Ramon Sessions, Eric Bledsoe, and more.

Joe built a championship team via trades, acquiring Ben Wallace and Chucky Atkins for Grant Hill, Rasheed Wallace from Atlanta for a bunch of scubs, and Richard Hamilton for Jerry Stackhouse.  Now we find ourselves building our roster via the draft, with Greg Monroe and Rodney Stuckey and Austin Daye and Jonas Jerebko set to make a big impact next season, along with whomever we select tonight.  Dumars would be wise to combine both of those philosophies and make deals to land coveted prospects as we continue along the rebuilding process.

For this reason, I do not foresee us trading up to land a top prospect, nor do I see us snagging a can’t-miss prospect unless the Pistons were targeting him from the get-go.  If we do trade down, expect it to be for a name we’ve been linked to for a while, as the Pistons tend to make their desires more available than they ought to.  New owner Tom Gores may provide the front office with a looser leash than seen under William Davidson’s ownership, which would give Dumars few excuses to not fix the team by the end of the three year window he’s been allotted.

 

Obligatory Darko Post

Every year there’s a draft, and, predictably, every year since 2003 we’ve had to tolerate Darko Milicic talk.  I don’t plan on talking about him as a solo subject often…

…But I’ll say this much:

• No, he wasn’t the next Dirk Nowitzki or Pau Gasol, as he was hyped up to be before the selection.  He never displayed an elite jumper and hasn’t played a minute at SF.
• He did, however, become a top 5 shotblocker in the league, both in terms of total blocks and average per game.  When Larry Brown said he wanted Darko to pattern his game after Bill Russell, he listened.
• Unlike most rejection specialists, he’s not a total liability on offense, and is a capable, but not stellar rebounder, averaging 8.3 rebounds PER36.
• He could fit in the rotation of almost every team in the league and thus I’d gladly welcome him back on the Pistons.
• He may have developed further had he not had six different coaches and played for five different teams in his seven seasons in the league.
• A few pretty good bigs have played next to Darko; Ben/Rasheed Wallace->Dwight Howard->David Lee->Al Jefferson->Kevin Love.

Nobody knows how good Darko could have been had he ever experienced some consistency as a priority big on a good team.  He is certainly not, however, a bad player, and there have been worse #2 picks in the last decade, and not all have had the perfect careers set out for them on draft day:

• Evan Turner was considered the most NBA ready player and he wasn’t a starter…
• Hasheem Thabeet was the highest draft pick to land in the D-League…
• Michael Beasley was traded for future 2nd round picks after his rookie season…
• Marvin Williams has only had one season with a PER higher than the average player when his 16.5 bested 15.0…
• Emeka Okafor never developed as a scorer and couldn’t come close to matching his defensive impact achieved at UCONN…
• Jay Williams motorcycled himself out the league…
• and finally, Stromile Swift flamed out of the league entirely.

Of course, the Pistons could have been better off had they drafted Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, or Chris Bosh (and maybe the goddamned Big Three would never have formed in Miami), but this post is about Darko.  In summary, he was a bust, but he’s also a keeper.

Get Some.

 

Mock Lotto 8

I’ve been reading so many silly things about the draft lately, particularly the Pistons.  In the past two days we’ve been rumored to have promised Kawhi Leonard, zeroed in on Tristan Thompson, been blown away by Markieff Morris (same for Marcus earlier), narrowed things down to only Kemba Walker and Jonas Valanciunas, and that we’ve decided on Biyombo.  Including Jan Vesely, there are eight players rumored to be in play at the #8 pick, and we have ourselves a clusterfuck.

Let me share with how things should play out, assuming teams are worried about need and role than they are about potential and workout-warriors.

1) Cleveland Cavaliers-SF Derrick Williams.

The Cavaliers have four players that are capable of playing SF under contract next season in Antawn Jamison, Joey Graham, Christian Eyenga, and Alonzo Gee.  Jamison’s played PF for them,  Eyenga is raw and equally suited for the SG position, and Graham/Gee are scrubs.
The Cavs can afford to pass on a PG because they have Baron Davis’ monster contract to play, Ramon Sessions (who puts up better PER36 numbers than Rodney Stuckey), and Boobie Gibson as options at PG.

Davis/Sessions
Manny Harris/Gibson
WILLIAMS/Eyenga
JJ Hickson/Jamison
Anderson Varejao/Ryan Hollins

2) Minnesota Timberwolves-C Enes Kanter

The Wolves need another rebounder besides Kevin Love on the roster.   Love has a great face-up game and needs to remain exclusively at PF, so acquiring a back-to-the-basket complement would be ideal, and Enes Kanter can be that guy.  Darko is their starting C and is a great shot-blocker, but his rebounding leaves a lot to be desired.  Between the two #2 picks in Milicic and Kanter and the contributions of Nikola Pekovic the Wolves suddenly would have one of the strongest C rotations in the league.
The Wolves pass on a PG because of Rubio coming stateside, Luke Ridnour making 4 million a year, and not having success moving Jonny Flynn  yet.

Rubio/Ridnour or Flynn
Wes Johnson/Wayne Ellington
Michael Beasley/Martell Webster
Kevin Love/Anthony Randolph
Enes Kanter or Darko Milicic

That’s actually a solid, well-rounded two-deep.  It’s amazing how underrated Michael Beasley has become; last I checked 19/6 was nothing to scoff at.

3) Utah Jazz-PG Kyrie Irving

I know, its controversial that I have likely #1 pick Kyrie Irving falling to #3 overall.
There’s not much to be said for the rationale behind this pick.  They don’t need frontcourt help between Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson, and Derrick Favors, and they just used a lotto pick on a SF last year in Gordon Hayward.  If there were a stud SG prospect available they would probably opt for that, as incumbent PG Devin Harris is no slouch, but alas, the best SG prospects would be reaches at #3.

Harris or Irving
Miles/Bell
Hayward/?
Millsap or Favors
Jefferson/Fesenko

4) Cleveland Cavaliers-F Jan Vesely

The Cavs would also love for there to be an elite SG prospect available here, but they settle for flexibility and depth with Jan Vesely.  It is unclear whether he’s a SF or PF, but his tenacity and big play ability would make him a fan favorite on the rebuilding Cavs.  If he plays PF, that would allow Hickson to play more minutes at C (if he isn’t moved).  If he plays SF then that pushes Eyenga to SG full-time and Williams has a super-sub as a backup.  Either way, Antawn Jamison shouldn’t be a deterrent for the selection of a F tweener.

Davis/Sessions
Harris/Gibson
Williams/Eyenga and Vesely
Hickson/Jamison and Vesely
Varejao/Hickson/Hollins

5) Toronto Raptors-C Jonas Valanciunas

The Raptors are looking at PGs IRL, but the position is covered by Jose Calderon and Jerryd Bayless, who somehow fell out of the top 10 in the 2008 draft and hasn’t really been given a fair shake.  Throw in Leandro Barbosa who can play some PG and ought to receive minutes to justify his 7.6 million dollar salary, and I’m surprised to hear how sold they are on Kemba Walker.
They take a C because Andrea Bargnani is a horribly inadequate rebounder and defender at the C position, and his perimeter-oriented skill-set is better justified elsewhere.  Prospect Bismack Biyombo would be redundant with Amir Johnson a Raptor, so Valanciunas is the pick.

Calderon/Bayless
DeMar DeRozan/Barbosa
James Johnson/Sonny Weems
Bargnani/Johnson
Valanciunas or Ed Davis

6) Washington Wizards-SF Kawhi Leonard

Sorry Brandon Knight, but the Wizards already have John Wall at PG.  Washington opts for a SF because all their other positions are covered by young talent; you have Wall, the volume-shooting Nick Young at SG, the versatile Andray Blatche at PF, and Marcus Camby-esque JaVale McGee at C.  Leonard should infuse some toughness into a lineup that has several soft players: Young, Blatche, Jianlian.
They’d consider a reliable C to compensate for McGee’s mental lapses, but there aren’t any polished five-men available.

Wall/Jordan Crawford
Young/Mo Evans
Leonard/Lewis
Blatche/Rashard  Lewis
McGee/Kevin Seraphin

7) Sacramento Kings-PG Brandon Knight

Tyreke Evans hit a sophomore wall last season and didn’t match the 20/5/5 we enjoyed out of his rookie campaign.  There are debates as to whether he’s a SG or PG, and Brandon Knight’s selection would clear things up nicely.  Both are considered combo guards, but Evans is more of a slasher and Knight is an underrated shooter.    Beno Udrih and Marcus Thornton would be great backups, and in one fell swoop the Kings would have one of the more promising young backcourt units around.

Knight/Udrih
Evans/Thornton
Omri Casspi/Francisco Garcia
Jason Thompson/Darnell Jackson
DeMarcus Cousins/Hassan Whiteside

8) Detroit Pistons-C Bismack Biyombo

I consider him the fourth best prospect overall, and having him slide to #8 is not an indictment on his abilities or homerific on my part.  If teams are paying attention to roles/balance/depth the way I do, Biyombo only makes sense at #2 or #8, and there he lands.

Stuckey/Bynum
Gordon/Hamilton
Hamilton/Daye
Jerebko/Villanueva
Monroe/Biyombo

A bunch of teams are going to GET NONE tomorrow if the reports are true about all the promises being handed out and reaches about to be made.